Probabilistic Risk Analysis in the Oil and Gas Industry
Development and operation of oil and gas production facilities requires an enormous investment of time, money, and technology. Given the nature of the industry, there are a large number of uncertainties (technological, economic and political) that are inherently present. As a result, critical investment decisions are often made based on sparse and uncertain data and qualitative analysis. Probabilistic risk assessment and analysis using GoldSim simulation software can facilitate better planning and risk management in the face of these uncertainties.
By creating a quantitative framework that explicitly accounts for uncertainties and also represents complex dynamics (something that cannot be realistically done in spreadsheet models), GoldSim can be used to identify and quantitatively compare alternatives. Large capital investments, long lead times against uncertain revenues, uncertainty of yield size and production, and market and political risks beyond company control are all harrowing challenges that make probabilistic simulation a valuable tool for the oil and gas industry.
Examples of where probabilistic simulation using GoldSim can be applied include the following:
- Probabilistic reserves analysis.
- Probabilistic forecasting of prices and demands.
- Evaluation of exploration opportunities.
- Capital project planning, NPV and IRR analysis, and asset evaluation.
- Identification of processing bottlenecks and definition of appropriate maintenance schedules by simulating reliability and availability of equipment (using the GoldSim Reliability Module).
- Decommissioning and closure of facilities (using the GoldSim Contaminant Transport Module and Financial Module); compute the costs of decommissioning facilities accounting for long-term environmental liabilities and legislative contingencies.
To learn more, you can:
- Take the GoldSim Quick Tour to quickly learn about GoldSim's features and capabilities;
- Compare GoldSim to the one of the most commonly used risk analysis tools, the spreadsheet;
- Learn more about GoldSim's Financial Module, an add-on extension to GoldSim to help you model financial aspects of complex systems;
- Learn more about GoldSim's Reliability Module, an add-on extension to GoldSim to help you model risk and reliability of engineered systems;
- Learn more about GoldSim's Contaminant Transport Module, an add-on extension to GoldSim to help you to simulate the fate and transport of contaminants through the environment;
- Request a free web demo, in which one of our technical staff shares his/her desktop while answering your questions and demonstrating the application of GoldSim to the oil and gas industry; and/or
- Request a free Evaluation and try GoldSim for yourself.
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